Technological Prospection for Terrestrial Mobility: a technology roadmapping case study

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Résumé:

1. Purpose
Starting from the fact that human coexistence with intelligent machines is no longer a novelty, in the near future, such relationship will tend to become more and more narrow in terms of productive and operational tasks. In this context, sensors, self-learning software and other intelligent systems will be imperative (BLOEM et al., 2014). In this scenario of technological innovations, we can note the emergence of debates that cover the automotive industry and its relationship with the evolution of transportation and mobility aiming at understanding the modeling forces and technological trends (CORWIN et al., 2016). Regarding that, terrestrial mobility is currently immersed in changes coming from innovative technologies, as mentioned in the report by Corwin et al. (2016, p.1): “potential powertrain technologies”; “light materials”; “fast advancements in connected vehicles”; “changes in mobility preferences”; “emergence of autonomous vehicles”. From these considerations, the following questions emerged as guidance of this work: What are the main trends of study in the area of terrestrial mobility? What products and technologies need to be developed? What are the research gaps and what sets of knowledge are needed for this area to develop? What are the main demands of society? In this sense, the general objective of this study is, through the TRM and T-Plan methodology, develop an empirical framework for technological prospecting for terrestrial mobility.

2. Research design
From a constructive epistemology, this research is classified as descriptive of qualitative nature and used as method a single case study with participant observation. For data collection, we carried out meetings and qualitative interviews with semi-structured scripts with managers; workshops and questionnaires with specialists in the area of terrestrial mobility, among them teachers, researchers and students from different fields of study, such as: engineering, business, law and physics. Regarding data analysis, for interviews and questionnaires we developed a descriptive analysis; for the workshops, the premises of TRM and T-Plan methodology (Phaal, Farrukh & Probert, 2001) structured the basis for the analysis using brainstorming and prioritization matrices.

3. Main findings
Based on the analysis of the collected data and using the roadmap structure divided into society, products / technology and science, a visual representation with future orientation for urban mobility was generated in terms of one, three and five years.
In the first workshop, the dimensions of society were discussed in order to understand their demands related to urban mobility. As a result, it was understood that within one year it is necessary to develop knowledge and information on terrestrial mobility. In three years society demands mobility solutions; finally, in five years the expectation of delivery refers to issues related to intelligent vehicles and infrastructure.
As a result of the second workshop – this one referring to the products and technologies delivered to society seeking to meet their demands – for the first year is indicated as necessary: advancements on R & D, training of people and knowledge diffusion. In three years, low-cost technologies, APPs, public policies, awareness programs, norms and standards should be developed.
In workshop three, from discussions of science, considering this as a body of knowledge necessary and useful to the theoretical domain and to technology development, it is understood that within the first is necessary to: substantiate the theme on project management, usage cases, sociology of technology, theory of terrestrial mobility, electronics and computing, ADS, innovation and technology economics. Within three years, the main contributions of science should be in the areas of entrepreneurship and innovation, cyber security, quintuple helix, acceptance of technology, regionalities (local solutions), alternative energies, consumer behavior, quality standards, ecomobility and value chain. Finally, after five years, the focus should be on knowledge related to quality management and intellectual property.

4. Practical implications
The results of this study provides an early insight into the potential for change that has emerged over the mobility system established more than a century ago. The consequences may result in the creation of a new mobility ecosystem with potential effects on various sectors such as automotive, finance, insurance, energy, public sector, medical, legal, media and telecommunications, technology, retail and transportation. These effects may be related to creation, value reduction or related to mixed impact (CORWIN et al., 2015).
These consequences are presented as challenges for society and, in order to face them, science can be seen as a great source of basic and applied knowledge, providing foundations for change, generating benefits and mitigating impacts. Therefore, this work guides the efforts of R & D centers, universities and other research institutions, which by advancing science can help improve their results, promoting the generation of innovation and mobility solutions.