Just transition in the auto sector: An assessment of policies and programs in North America and China

Résumé:

As the political and social demands of the climate crisis continue to boil, narratives and initiatives on just transition are growing. Often entangled with notions of climate justice, just transition implies the equitable distribution of costs and benefits of moving away from carbon energy sources " in a just, orderly, and equitable manner to mitigate the worst effects of climate change and reach net zero by the year 2050” (COP 28, Dubai, Nov-Dec 2023). It also means acknowledging past and future impacts, building spaces for participation, dialogue, and deliberation around transforming a fossil fuel economy into a decarbonized one.
Such demands have a direct impact on the automotive sector and its employees as the industry is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, and its transition to electrification - i.e., the greening path chosen by its dominant players - is resulting in stranded assets and displaced workers. Likewise, the turn to EVs may have a negative environmental impact as mining of required metals may cause resource depletion, deforestation, water shortages, and ecosystem destruction, creating additional sources of human-labor rights violations.
All of this raises the question of how the transition is proceeding in different national contexts, and what role labor is playing in each of these contexts, along with the premises of a just transition. This paper aims to contribute to answering this question. It will focus on comparing the national cases of North America (USA and Mexico) and China. It will be a building block study based on gray literature and a mapping of current studies on just transition in these national contexts. The cases chosen are plausible. The coal sectors of China and the United States are the largest sources of carbon emissions in the world. They also have the most resources and initiatives to create a roadmap for sustainable development on a global scale. Meanwhile, Mexico has become one of the preferred locations among emerging markets for OEMs' nearshoring strategies and a source of critical minerals for the EV transition.

The analysis will be based on a three-pronged approach to evaluating transition policies and programs. First, we will evaluate the reactive, active and/or emancipatory nature of the policies and programs under observation (Turnheim, 2022). Then we will look at the multidimensional dimension of justice applied - i.e. from distributive to procedural justice; from recognition to cosmopolitan, ecological and capacity justice (Kaljonen et al., 2024). Third, we will use the ILO (2016) Guiding Principles for a Just Transition. That is, key government and OEM programs and initiatives related to the transition will be mapped, scrutinized and classified according to their content - degree of social dialogue/social consensus in policymaking; involvement of relevant stakeholders; respect and promotion of fundamental principles and rights at work; place of the gender dimension within environmental challenges and opportunities; the education/training and labor portfolios needed to create an enabling environment for enterprises, workers, investors and consumers to embrace and drive the transition to environmentally sustainable development; frameworks to promote the creation of more decent jobs, anticipating impacts on employment, job losses and displacement; and protection of the effective exercise of the right to organize and bargain collectively.