China's Automotive Industrial Policy: The Wrong Firms are Winning

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Abstract:

Chinese firms are now the leaders in the production and sales of EVs/PHEVs, so in that sense the government's industrial policies appear success. However, the wrong firms are winning. Instead of the putative national champions dominating the market, private firms are the leaders and the SOEs such as SAIC (Shanghai Auto Industries Co) are faring poorly. This paper / presentation will examine the winners and losers in more detail, and embed the empirical story in an analysis of proximate causes and firm incentives. I intend explore briefly whether there are state owned firms in the battery industry, to see whether similar dynamics are at play.

For initial results, which I will extend and update prior to the conference, see articles at smitka.substack.com